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Blackjack Strategy

Winning blackjack is not just pure luck - it is in part a game of skill. By playing with a good strategy/system, an experienced blackjack player can alter the dealer's normal advantage, sometimes even gaining an edge over the casino.

It is important to remember certain things when playing blackjack, such as:

  • Since players must go first, the dealer has the edge. Even if the dealer busts later in the game, if a player busts first, he/she loses.
  • You can win the game by getting a better hand than the dealer. Some players lose sight of this and play just to get as close to 21 as they can, causing them to bust more than they should.
  • Even when the dealer has a winning hand with a total of 16, he is still required to take another card and may bust. Regardless of his position, the dealer has to play by the rules.

Basic Blackjack Strategy
One method that will increase your odds of winning is using statistical analysis to calculate the outcome of various hands. The dealer must always hit with a hand of 16 or less and stand with a hand of 17 or more. Certain casinos will allow the dealer to hit on a soft 17. One of the dealer's cards is face-up, and these predictions for the dealer busting have been worked out:

Dealer's face-up card is: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ace
Percentage chance of busting: 35 37 40 42 42 26 24 23 23 17

You can tell the dealer has higher chances of busting when his face-up card is a six or smaller value card, and less if the face-up card has a value of seven or more. Using this information the following blackjack strategy was created:

Soft Hand Rules (Ace counted as a one OR an eleven)
Most casinos will let an ace be played as a 1 or 11, whatever value will benefit the holder the most. When a player has an ace that is being used as an 11, it's called a "soft hand." These hands are played differently because the player cannot draw to a soft hand and bust (the player just revalues the Ace to count as 1 instead of 11). The odds of busting on a hit are high. Basic tactic for playing soft hands is to double down when the dealer has a high probability of busting (low value face-up cards).

Players Hand Strategy
Soft 19 or 20 Stand
Soft 18 Stand if the dealer is showing 2,7 or 8.Hit if the dealer is showing 9,10 or Ace.Double if the dealer is showing 3,4,5 or 6.
Soft 17 Hit if the dealer is showing 2, 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace.Double if the dealer is showing 3,4,5 or 6.
Soft 16 or 15 Hit if the dealer is showing 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace.Double if the dealer is showing 4,5 or 6.
Soft 14 or 13 Hit if the dealer is showing 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace.Double if the dealer is showing 5 or 6.

When you are dealt a card that changes your hand from a soft hand (Ace = 11) to a hard hand (Ace = 1) then change strategies to the hard hand rules:



Hard Hand Rules (When an Ace must be counted as one)
  • A player who is dealt a hand totaling 12 to 16 when the dealer is showing a high value card (7 to Ace) should take a card. It's a slim chance that the dealer will bust and the player should work to better his hand in order to win with a higher total.
  • A player who is dealt a hand totaling 12 to 16 when the dealer is showing a low value card (2 to 6) should stand. There is a high probability that the dealer will bust and the player will then win.
  • If the player is dealt a hand totaling 17 to 21 he/she should stand.


Doubling Down
Doubling down lets you put more money on the table when the odds of winning are good. You should always bet the maximum amount allowed when this happens. Doubling down should only be done when the player has a better chance of winning than the dealer, or when you stand to earn more by doubling down than by hitting the hand.

Casinos have different rules for doubling down; usually you can only double down after you get your initial two cards and before you draw a third card, but some casinos only allow the option on certain hand values (usually 9, 10 or 11).

Soft Hand Rules for Doubling Down
Double down when:
  • Player has (A, 6) or (A, 7) and the dealer is showing 3 through 6.
  • Player has (A, 2) or (A, 3) and the dealer is showing 5 or 6.
  • Player has (A, 4) or (A, 5) and the dealer is showing 4 through 6.


Hard Hand Rules for Doubling Down
Double down when:
  • Player has hard 10 and the dealer is showing 2 through 9.
  • Player has hard 11 and the dealer is showing 2 through 10.
  • Player has hard 9 and the dealer is showing 3 through 6.

Splitting Pairs
Regardless of the pair value, some players split all pairs - this is not a good plan. You should never split a pair of tens or a pair of fives. With two tens you have a total of 20 which is more than likely to be a winning hand, while a pair of fives total 10 and you have a better chance of drawing a 10 than any other value for a win. You should always split Aces and eights. Once again, you have higher odds of drawing a card worth 10 than any other and then you have either 21 (for Aces) or 18 (for eights) - both are difficult for the dealer to beat.

All other splitting decisions are based on the dealer's face-up card. You should split when the dealer is showing a low value face-up card. Split when:

  • Player has a pair of 4's and the dealer is showing 5 or 6.
  • Player has a pair of 6's and the dealer is showing 2 through 6.
  • Player has a pair of 2's, 3's or 7,s and the dealer is showing 2 through 7.
  • Player has a pair of 9's and the dealer is showing 2 through 6, 8 or 9. - If the dealer is showing a 7 and you assume he/she has a hole card worth 10 then your 18 will beat it so you don't split.

Surrendering
This is not a popular choice in blackjack, and is not offered in many gambling facilities. You surrender when your hand has a very slim chance of winning. When you surrender, you stop playing and lose one-half of your bet.

When playing multiple deck blackjack games you should only surrender when:

  • The player has a hard 16 and the dealer is showing a 9, 10 or Ace.
  • The player has a hard 15 and the dealer is showing a 10.

When playing two deck Blackjack games you should only surrender when:

  • The player has a hard 16 and the dealer is showing a 10.
  • The player has a hard 15 and the dealer is showing a 10.
  • The player has a pair of 7's and the dealer is showing a 10.

Insurance
It is a bad bet to take insurance. We all have those gut feelings sometimes, but the odds will not be in your favour.

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